11.07.08
The 2008 Tipping Point State
One of the least understood features of Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com was his list of “tipping point states”.
I thought that, for each simulation of the election, Nate sorted the states by margin of victory for the overall winner. Then he’d start adding up electoral votes. The state that tipped the winner over 270 would be the “tipping point state” for that simulation.
While writing this blog post, I discovered that I had completely misunderstood this list! Nate describes the actual calculation of his list in this post. It’s quite involved, but better captures the intuition of a “tipping point state”.
Just for fun, I figured out what the 2008 Election’s tipping point state was using the methodology I’d originally thought Nate did. And it was… Colorado! Obama took Colorado with 54.40% of the vote, the 23rd most lopsided total. It takes him from 262 to 271 Electoral Votes.
Full list of states, margins of victory and electoral votes below the fold.
| State | % Obama | Total EV |
|---|---|---|
| D.C. | 93.42% | 3 |
| Hawaii | 72.93% | 7 |
| Vermont | 67.89% | 10 |
| Rhode Island | 64.13% | 14 |
| Massachusetts | 63.13% | 26 |
| New York | 62.87% | 57 |
| Illinois | 62.37% | 78 |
| Maryland | 62.22% | 88 |
| California | 62.21% | 143 |
| Delaware | 61.99% | 146 |
| Washington | 58.84% | 157 |
| Maine | 58.73% | 161 |
| Michigan | 58.38% | 178 |
| New Mexico | 57.61% | 183 |
| New Jersey | 57.37% | 198 |
| Wisconsin | 57.04% | 208 |
| Oregon | 56.66% | 215 |
| Nevada | 56.35% | 220 |
| Pennsylvania | 55.24% | 241 |
| Minnesota | 55.22% | 251 |
| New Hampshire | 54.82% | 255 |
| Iowa | 54.70% | 262 |
| Colorado | 54.40% | 271 |
| Connecticut | 53.44% | 278 |
| Virginia | 52.26% | 291 |
| Ohio | 51.98% | 311 |
| Florida | 51.27% | 338 |
| Indiana | 50.48% | 349 |
| Nebraska 2nd | 50.24% | 350 |
| North Carolina | 50.17% | 365 |
| Missouri | 49.90% | 376 |
| Montana | 48.24% | 379 |
| Georgia | 47.25% | 394 |
| South Dakota | 45.70% | 397 |
| Arizona | 45.64% | 407 |
| North Dakota | 45.57% | 410 |
| South Carolina | 45.47% | 418 |
| Nebraska 1st | 44.80% | 419 |
| Texas | 44.08% | 453 |
| West Virginia | 43.33% | 458 |
| Mississippi | 43.07% | 464 |
| Kentucky | 42.37% | 472 |
| Tennessee | 42.36% | 483 |
| Kansas | 42.17% | 489 |
| Nebraska | 41.83% | 491 |
| Louisiana | 40.50% | 500 |
| Arkansas | 39.78% | 506 |
| Alabama | 39.10% | 515 |
| Alaska | 37.08% | 518 |
| Idaho | 36.86% | 522 |
| Utah | 35.20% | 527 |
| Oklahoma | 34.36% | 534 |
| Wyoming | 33.38% | 537 |
| Nebraska 3rd | 30.06% | 538 |